Looking Forward

2017-12-06

Big Themes

  1. Land and territory.
  2. Political norms and coalitions.
  3. Controlling a chaotic economy.
  4. Slavery and racial fallout.

The Bush Administration




George W Bush

Karl Rove

The Rove "permanent majority":

  1. Detach Culturally conservative/Christian minorities through "wedge issues" like gay marriage.
  2. Economically aspirant immigrants.
  3. Wait for old Roosevelt voters to die off, and persuade young voters they are libertarian.
  4. Money from big businesses.
  5. Flags!!!

Bush's domestic policies:

  1. Tax Cuts!
  2. Increasing federal role in education (standards)
  3. Expansion of medicare spending on prescription drugs.
  4. Privatizing Social Security (failed)

http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2015/02/FT_16.01.06_presApproval_hi_lo.png

CDO

CDS

Unbuilt lots, 2013

Deflation!

Unemployment rebounded fairly fast

Percentage employed still low.

  • How do you accomodate to shifting populations?
  • How do you address racial inequalities in economic condition?
  • How/should can the government regulate the financial system? Wilsonian tactics of breakup? Rooseveltian tactics of takeover and control?

What's Next?

2017-12-05, Institute of Politics:

  • 2/3 of young (18-29 year old) Americans are fearful of the future
  • 68% of black Americans and 46% of Hispanics believe their race is under attack “a lot”
  • 15% of whites feel their race is under attack?
  • 2 to 1 Democratic preference, but only 1 in 3 think Democrats care about "people like them."
  • 67% believe greatest threats come from inside the country.

What's next?

  • Gradual realignment?
  • Populism vs Globalism, with identitarian politics as the aligning element?
  • Socialism vs Capitalism, as young people get older?
  • Democratic Decline, as norms and institutions are neglected?
  • Totalitarian surveillance distopia?

Martin Van Buren

1862

1862